Not only does Ms Ardern believe Labour can win the 2020 election but she told the star struck crowd Labour won in 2017 - a statement that will incense National. Labour won the Treasury benches but not the party vote, something that still irks National MPs. This poll is not a media-commissioned poll. The next SA election will be held in mid-March 2018. Bernard Hickey answers one of his eight big questions for 2020. Whether and how Labour might win a second term Labour will probably win a second term leading a coalition Government on September 19, but don't rule out an atypical 'winner takes all' result. COMMENT: Indicators suggest the National Party will win a fourth term in 2017 - and it's probably too late for the Labour to do anything about it. The 2017 UK general election is the closest benchmark we have for what’s going to happen next. "Labour did not win the last election - they were placed into Government by a coalition," he said. Layers of mythology have already piled up around that election: peeling them back will help clarify whether it’s likely to be repeated. The ABA is an anti-Labor lobby group that wants to stop the proposed SA state bank tax. Recent opinion polls put Boris Johnson's Conservative party in the lead, but Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party can still win the next general election. No small party that has supported either Labour or National in government since 1996 has crossed the 5 per cent party vote threshold at the next election.


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